Analysis: Iran's "axis" is in disarray following Khamenei's murder

 Tehran threatens to "destroy everything," but its proxies in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon must decide between local survival and fatal retaliation.

This Iranian-allied network was as Tehran's first line of defense for many years. However, the alliance now appears more like a collection of disparate islands than a cohesive combat machine, with its commander-in-chief deceased and its logistical arteries severed.

The Iranian leadership is now ready to "destroy everything" in reaction to the attacks, according to Hassan Ahmadian, a lecturer at the University of Tehran, who cautioned that the days of strategic patience are over.

The response from Tehran's main proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq showed a profound reluctance motivated by regional existential dangers that would surpass their ideological allegiance to a deceased leader, despite Tehran's pledge to retaliate against the US and Israel "with a force they have never encountered before."

Hezbollah: Moving between drops of rain

Hezbollah, long regarded as Iran's most valuable regional ally, has carefully calibrated its response in Beirut.

The group released a statement denouncing the attack as the "height of criminality" following the news of Khamenei's passing on Sunday. Mazen Ibrahim, an Al Jazeera correspondent in Beirut, pointed out that the language was defensive rather than insulting.

"The complexity of Hezbollah's perspective becomes evident if one dissects the statement's linguistic structure," Ibrahim stated. "Confronting aggression" is a term used by the secretary-general to describe a defensive stance. He made no overt threats to strike Israel or carry out retaliatory actions.

A new strategic reality is the basis for this prudence. The "land bridge" that fed Hezbollah has been cut off since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria in late 2024. According to researcher Ali Akbar Dareini of Tehran, the organization were physically isolated after this loss "removed the ground contact with Lebanon."

Hezbollah now seems paralyzed, caught between a shattered internal front in Lebanon and a void of directives from Tehran, following the deaths of Khamenei and other commanders of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The Houthis: Survival meets solidarity

The situation for the Houthis in Yemen is even more precarious.

After the strikes on Iran started on Saturday, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, the head of the group, said his soldiers were "completely prepared for all developments" in his first televised speech. However, analysts saw his rhetoric's emphasis on "Iran is strong" and "its response would be decisive" as an attempt to shift the immediate responsibility of war away from the Houthis.

There is a lot of pressure on the Houthis. They have fired missiles at Tel Aviv and successfully interrupted Red Sea shipping, but they now face a fresh domestic threat.

After defeating rebels from the south in a power battle, the internationally recognized Yemeni government has seen a change in momentum. "The index of operations is headed towards the capital, Sanaa," which is under Houthi control, according to a recent statement by Defense Minister Taher al-Aqili. A possible ground offensive to recover Houthi territories was hinted at in the statement.

This puts the Houthis in a difficult situation. Although Iranian official Ali Larijani and Houthi negotiator Mohammed Abdulsalam recently met in Muscat, Oman, to discuss "unity of the arenas," the situation on the ground is different. The Houthis' home front would be vulnerable to government forces supported by rivals in the region if they fight for Iran.

In a statement that promised escalation but also subtly acknowledged the heavy cost of a larger battle, the Supreme Political Council, which is linked with the Houthi, warned that "increasing the circle of targeting will only result in expanding the circle of confrontation."

Iraq: The time bomb within

The problem is arguably worse in Iraq than anywhere else, where it is extremely difficult to distinguish between the state and the "resistance."

There is currently a direct conflict between the US and Iran-aligned militias, many of which are part of the state-approved Popular Mobilization Forces. Since Ibrahim Al-Sumaidaie, an adviser to Iraq's prime minister, disclosed in late 2024 that Washington had threatened to use force to dissolve these groups, tensions have been building. As a result of the threats, he resigned under pressure from militia leaders.

That threat is more real now than it has ever been. These organizations are officially a component of the Iraqi security structure, unlike the Houthis or Hezbollah. Retaliation from Iraqi territory would put the US and the Iraqi state in direct confrontation in addition to running the risk of a militia war.

The "restraining hand" is no longer there since the IRGC commanders who previously served as mediators of these disputes are no longer alive. Leaders of isolated militias may now choose to attack US outposts on their own initiative, drawing Baghdad into a conflict that the government has made a valiant effort to avoid.

Headless resistance

The "axis of resistance's" command-and-control system has been effectively destroyed by Khamenei's murder.

Three pillars supported the network: the IRGC's logistical coordination, the supreme leader's intellectual authority, and the geographical link via Syria. All three are shattered today.

"The cutting off of the ground link is the worst harm to Iran's security interests," Dareini stated. Khamenei's departure also breaks the "spiritual bond."

A fragmented landscape is what is left. Hezbollah is too worn out in Lebanon to establish a front in the north. The Houthis may launch a domestic offensive in Yemen. The militias in Iraq run the risk of bringing down the state in which they reside.

The region will face a frightening unpredictability once the dust settles in Tehran. An organized army is no longer the "axis of resistance." It is a group of irate, well-armed militias that are all trying to survive in a world where Tehran has abruptly stopped giving orders.