"What is the strategy?" China's aspirations are being unsettled by the Iran War.
"What is the strategy?" China's aspirations are being unsettled by the Iran War.
The shock of the Middle East conflict has not yet reached China.
However, it is experiencing the ripples.
It has ample oil supplies for a few months in the near future, after which it may seek assistance from its neighbor, Russia.
However, China will be considering the long-term implications of this for both its aspirations and its investments in the Middle East.
As the world's second-largest economy struggles with poor consumption, a protracted real estate crisis, and massive local debt, hundreds of Communist Party members are gathering in Beijing this week to propose a path.
China's yearly economic growth target was cut to its lowest level since 1991 on Thursday, despite Beijing's continued rapid development of the high-tech and renewable industries.
It is possible that China wanted to export its way out of financial difficulties. However, it has been engaged in a trade war with the United States for a year, and it now confronts the possibility of instability in the Middle East, which provides most of its energy needs as well as its main shipping routes.
The longer the conflict lasts, the more damage it may cause, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz is still sealed.According to Philip Shetler-Jones of the Royal United Services Institute, "a protracted period of unrest and insecurity in the Middle East will disturb other regions of interest for China."For example, significant and consistent flows of Gulf capital have benefited African economies. The sustainability of China's larger and longer-term interests could be jeopardized if the investment tide reverses.
In other words, because of its worldwide reach, China's markets and investments outside of the Middle East are also at risk from a protracted conflict. China is also cautious about this new wave of uncertainty, just like so many other nations.
"I think China is thinking the same as everyone else," says Professor Kerry Brown, director of the China Lau Institute at King's College London.
"What is the game plan? Surely the Americans didn't go into this with no game plan."
But then, he adds: "Probably, along with everyone else, they would also be thinking, oh God, they really have gone into this with no plan at all. Right, we don't want to get dragged into this like we don't want to get dragged into anything else, but we also need to do something."
Not-so-firm pals Many in the West consistently referred to Iran as China's "ally."
They have undoubtedly been amiable. Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Tehran, last traveled outside to Beijing in 1989. The Great Wall was where he got his picture taken.
After Xi Jinping visited Tehran in 2016, their relationship grew stronger, and in 2021 they formed a 25-year strategic alliance.
Iran agreed to keep the oil flowing in exchange for China investing $400 billion (£300 billion) in Iran over a 25-year period.
Only a small portion of that money, according to observers, has really reached the Iranians. However, the oil continued to flow.
The Center on Global Energy Policy estimates that in 2025, China imported 1.38 million barrels of petroleum per day from Iran, or about 12% of all crude oil imports into China. It is believed that several of these barrels were relabeled as Malaysian in order to conceal their provenance.
According to a report published by the Columbia University research center, the National Iranian Oil Company leases tanks in the Chinese ports of Dalian and Zhoushan, where more than 46 million barrels of Iranian oil are in bonded storage that has not yet been cleared by customs.
Allegations of arms deals between the two nations have also surfaced. Although Beijing has denied selling Tehran anti-ship cruise missiles, US intelligence has accused Beijing of providing components and training engineers to Iran's ballistic missile program.
Rights organizations have claimed that Beijing's use of Chinese facial recognition and surveillance technology has fueled Iran's violent crackdowns against demonstrators and regime critics.
The two may seem to have been close friends.
Even newspaper headlines that grouped China and Iran with North Korea and Russia as a "axis of upheaval" were influenced by this. Although their relationship was transactional, all four of them do desire to oppose the US-led global order.According to Professor Brown, there is no genuine ideological or cultural justification for China to get along with Iran.Iran's persistent annoyance to the US occasionally served China's nearly "divide and rule" policy. Therefore, I believe that China's desire for a relationship with Iran is mostly motivated by negative factors rather than good ones.That is a very flimsy foundation for a relationship, and it was somewhat successful. However, the relationship was not extremely deep.
China's perspective on its "alliances" differs from that of the West. It will not rush to its ally's help and does not sign treaties pertaining to mutual defense.
Beijing, on the other hand, is eager to avoid any clash.
Taking the lead
However, this does not negate China's profound concern over the Middle East.
Beijing called for a truce and delivered a muted, predictable denunciation.
"Unacceptable for the US and Israel to initiate assaults against Iran... still less to shamelessly kill a leader of a sovereign country and foment regime change" is how Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said it.
In actuality, Washington's actions in Iran and Venezuela in January have brought attention to the boundaries of both nations' alliances with China.
Beijing has been left on the sidelines as an observer on both occasions, unable to assist those in its sphere of influence.
According to Philip Shetler-Jones of the Royal United Services Institute, China is attempting to present itself as a "responsible counter-balance" to the US, but "in terms of military balance, the US is demonstrating what being a superpower really means, which is the ability to force outcomes in theatres across the globe."
He contends that despite its economic prowess, Beijing is not "a superpower on the same level"Even if it chose to, it is ill-prepared to defend its allies against such behavior."
In contrast to Donald Trump, Xi will continue to present himself as a steady and dependable world leader in order to allay these worries.
According to Professor Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China institute, "China's argument will be that Donald Trump has once again shown beyond any question the depth of western hypocrisy and western discourse of the liberal international order."
He goes on to say that this battle will "have far greater consequences economically in the Global South than in the West" because to disruptions to the oil supply and air traffic.In a few months, some nations—those in the Global South—will experience a food shortfall. Additionally, the Western alliance is already disintegrating, with attacks targeting Spain and the United Kingdom.
Beijing might also perceive an opportunity to assist in mediating negotiations alongside other nations. China has declared it will send a special envoy to the Middle East, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi has already met with his counterparts in France and Oman.
Trump's impending visit
However, China is exercising caution because the volatile US president, who is scheduled to arrive for a highly anticipated meeting later this month, is one of their most important calculations.
Trump has not been specifically targeted by China's criticism of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which might facilitate a handshake.
Some have questioned whether the visit can still go. However, there are indications that it is still on. According to Reuters, officials from both sides are scheduled to meet to talk about the trip.
According to Shetler-Jones, China would view this as an opportunity to "search for indications" about how Trump might react to other hotspots like Taiwan, the self-governing island it claims.If this war turns out to be unpopular, it may add to a developing trend of "restriction" in US foreign and security policy, which, if implemented by a future government, would provide China more freedom to pursue its objectives both inside its own region and globally.
The People's Liberation Army has used social media to portray Washington as a warmonger in response to this issue.
But according to Prof. Brown, having such "an unpredictable and a dysfunctional actor" could cause Beijing to feel uneasy.China does not truly want a world where the US is such an unpredictable actor, but I do not think they want the US to rule the world."
