Why are Iranian leaders sending mixed messages on Gulf attacks?
Why are Iranian leaders sending mixed messages on Gulf attacks?
As President Pezeshkian's words are met with opposition from the influential IRGC, attacks on the Gulf continue.
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| Pezeshkian said that his comments from Saturday were misconstrued by "the enemy that attempts to create division with neighbors" on Sunday morning, while attacks continued around the Gulf. |
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has apologized to neighboring nations that Tehran has attacked in retaliation since Israel and the United States began a military campaign against Iran.
However, Iran's formidable Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) voiced its disagreement of the president's comments on Saturday and warned its neighbors that Tehran would carry out more attacks if the United States and Israel attacked Iran from their land.
Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf emphasized Tehran's right to self-defense, while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Tehran will not halt strikes.
Regarding its attacks on Gulf neighbors, Iran's leadership has been giving conflicting signals. Additional Iranian strikes were reported on Saturday and Sunday. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates reported being targeted on Saturday.
Why, therefore, is Iran giving Gulf nations conflicting signals? What interpretation should be given to its statements?
What statements have Iranian leaders made?
Pezeshkian promised in a taped statement on Saturday to stop attacking neighboring nations until an attack on Iran came from their territory.
"I sincerely apologize to the neighboring nations that Iran invaded. Without naming the nations he was referring to, he stated, "Our armed forces are heroes who offered their lives to maintain our territorial integrity, and our commanders, leaders, and loved ones lost their lives due to the barbaric attack that took place."
"We had no intention of infringing on the boundaries of other countries." They are our brothers, as I have stated numerous times. We support the people we care about in the area," he continued.
The IRGC stepped in shortly after Pezeshkian's apology, stating that Iran's armed forces "once again proclaim that they respect the interests and national sovereignty of neighboring nations and, up to this point, have committed no aggression against them."
"All military bases and interests of criminal America and the fake Zionist regime on land, at sea, and in the air across the region will be considered primary targets and will come under the powerful and crushing strikes of the mighty armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran if the previous hostile actions continue," the IRGC statement continued.
Later, Pezeshkian explained on X that Iran had "targeted US military bases, facilities, and installations in the region" rather than attacking any of its neighbors.
"When the enemy hits us from bases in the region, we reply – and we will continue to respond," stated Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, late on Saturday, echoing the IRGC's stance.
"This is a long-standing policy and our right. "We will have no choice but to do it ourselves if we do not stop the United States from utilizing our territory against Iran," he continued.
Pezeshkian said that his comments on Saturday were misconstrued by "the enemy that attempts to create discord with neighbors" on Sunday morning, while attacks continued around the Gulf.
Iranian state media reported that the president reaffirmed the country's desire for positive ties with "the fraternal neighboring countries," but that it has been compelled to retaliate against attacks originating from other nations' territories.
However, he emphasized that this approach does not imply a conflict with other nations.
He declared, "Iran will answer with power and stands strong against those who attack it."
In a statement released on Sunday, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized that "Iran's defensive operations against US military outposts and installations in the region should by no means be construed as hatred or hostility towards the countries of the region."
The executive director of the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha, Khalid al-Jaber, claims that several Iranian officials have delivered "contradictory" statements to nations in the region.
"We are unsure of which is accurate. Al-Jaber told Al Jazeera, "We do not think that Iran is going to cease hitting any infrastructure in the Gulf today, in conflict," pointing to the attack on the Bahraini water desalination facility as evidence.
"It appears that after the attack on Ayatollah Khamenei, there is no organization, individual, or leadership that we can speak with or reach an agreement with in order to try to grasp what their perspective is, what their point of view is," he stated.
How should we interpret Iran's messages?
Resul Serdar of Al Jazeera claims that the Revolutionary Guard's power surpassed Pezeshkian's apology.
Iranian political leaders are in charge of managing both nonstrategic and state affairs. However, politicians—including the president, who is the second in command under the constitution—have no say in matters of strategic importance, such as the nation's foreign and security policies. In Iran, this is a well-known fact, according to Serdar.
Even in times of peace, he said, the office of the supreme leader and the IRGC are in charge.
Serdar claimed on Sunday that Iranians were misinterpreting Pezeshkian's claim that his comments were intended more for Azerbaijan and Turkiye than for Gulf nations.
"Azerbaijan due to ethnic conflicts." An attack on the tens of thousands of Azeris who reside in Iran could backfire because Turkiye is a NATO member, he claimed.
Following a drone strike on its autonomous Nakhchivan exclave on Thursday, Azerbaijan has demanded an apology from Iran. However, Tehran has maintained that it was not responsible for the assault.
The Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced on Wednesday that NATO had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile fired from Iran toward Turkish airspace. However, Iran's military has denied launching any missiles in the direction of Turkish territory.
The International Crisis Group's director of the Iran project, Ali Vaez, told Al Jazeera that Pezeshkian's sporadic off-key comments have highlighted his lack of political intuition and expertise handling high-stakes situations.
"But in times of conflict, civilian officials' verbal blunders are ultimately irrelevant: The IRGC's voice is the only one that matters," he continued.
What is the Gulf's response?
Strikes on Gulf nations have persisted despite Iranian leaders' apology and threats.
Bahrain's Ministry of Interior reported that a water desalination plant suffered material damage on Sunday as a result of an Iranian drone attack.
That occurred one day after Araghchi claimed that the US had set a "precedent" by attacking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island off southern Iran. Iran has not immediately responded to Bahrain's remarks. For the consumption of their citizens, most Gulf nations rely heavily on desalinated water.
Drones and incoming missiles were reported in the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar on Saturday. Kuwait reported on Sunday that attacks on its international airport and social security office resulted in fires, and two Ministry of Interior employees were killed while on duty.
Saudi Arabia reported on Sunday that multiple drones had been shot down in its airspace and an attack on Riyadh's diplomatic district had been thwarted.
Iran's ongoing strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait, according to the Gulf Cooperation Council on Sunday, are "dangerous acts of aggression" that jeopardize regional peace and stability. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates make up the bloc.
Although they have not yet attacked Tehran, Gulf nations have intercepted and destroyed the majority of Iranian missiles and drones.
Vaez told Al Jazeera that while the Gulf governments have the right to retaliate, doing so would probably result in even more forceful retaliation from Iran.
"The Gulf states would also face political repercussions if they sided with Israel to bomb another Muslim state," he continued.
What is the US's response?
US President Donald Trump said that Iran has surrendered to its neighbors in a tweet on his social media platform, Truth Social, following the Iranian president's apologies on Saturday.
"Iran is no longer the "Bully of the Middle East," but rather "THE LOSER OF THE MIDDLE EAST," and they will remain so for many decades until they give up or, more likely, fall apart entirely." Trump made a post.
"The Gulf states would also face political repercussions if they sided with Israel to bomb another Muslim state," he continued.
The director of the Iranian think tank Diplo House, Hamidreza Gholamzadeh, stated in an interview with Al Jazeera on Saturday that Trump's reading of Pezeshkian's remarks as a "surrender" is "absolutely wrong."
Iran is requesting that its neighbors "stop cooperating with the United States or the Israeli regime and do not allow them to use their land or their airspace to attack Iran," according to Gholamzadeh, who described the request as "quite regular" and "legitimate."
