What impact would Iran's threat to close Bab al-Mandeb have on global trade?
What impact would Iran's threat to close Bab al-Mandeb have on global trade?
A quarter of the world's energy and a sizable portion of Asia's exports to Europe would be barred if the chokepoint and the Strait of Hormuz were closed.
On April 5, 2026, Yemeni fisherman cross a commercial ship in the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Iranian allies may block the Bab al-Mandeb shipping channel, as Tehran has essentially done with the Strait of Hormuz, according to a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.
An essential waterway for the world's oil traffic, the Bab-al-Mandeb links the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, which is used to transport 20% of the world's gas and oil during times of peace, its significance has grown.
Former Iranian foreign minister and seasoned diplomat Ali Akbar Velayati, who is well-known in the establishment, issued a warning on X on Sunday, saying that "the unified command of the Resistance front views Bab al-Mandeb as it does Hormuz."
"The White House will soon understand that the flow of global energy and trade can be stopped with a single move if it dares to repeat its dumb mistakes," Velayati warned. His warning was later corroborated by Iran's state-run Press TV.
It comes after US President Donald Trump threatened on Wednesday of this week to strike Iran's bridges and power plants if Tehran refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has stated that, aside from the US and Israel, ships from nations that negotiate safe passage are welcome to use Hormuz. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran's desalination plants in the past.
However, closing Bab al-Mandeb would have an effect beyond the current conflict; it would exacerbate the worldwide energy supply crisis brought on by the fighting, intensifying the economic unrest felt in factories, kitchens, and gas stations worldwide.
What makes the Bab al-Mandeb crucial to the oil trade?
It is among the most significant maritime lanes in the world.
Saudi Arabia transports its oil to Asia across the strait, which is an essential conduit. In addition to Saudi Arabia, the Strait of Hormuz provides an essential route for Gulf states to export natural gas, crude oil, and other fuels to Europe through the Suez Canal or the Sumed (Suez-Mediterranean) Pipeline on Egypt's Red Sea coast.
Approximately 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products, or 5% of the world's total, crossed the strait in 2024.
A quarter, or 25%, of the world's oil and gas supply would be blocked if Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz were both closed.
It is not simply oil: containers from China, India, and other Asian nations are transported to Europe via the Bab al-Mandeb, accounting for around 10% of world trade.
Bab al-Mandeb's significance has only increased since the Strait of Hormuz was closed.
Saudi Arabia, which has historically relied mostly on the Hormuz Strait for oil exports, is increasingly shipping crude through the Bab al-Mandeb from its Red Sea port of Yanbu.
The East West Pipeline, which connects Yanbu to the Abqaiq oil processing facility near the Gulf, has been used for this. Aramco, a major Saudi oil company, operates the 1,200-kilometer (745-mile) pipeline.
According to energy intelligence firm Kpler, Saudi Arabia increased its use of the East West Pipeline in March after Hormuz was closed. In January and February, the pipeline delivered an average of 770,000 bpd to the Red Sea coast. Oil was flowing at the pipeline's maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day by the end of March.
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| On April 5, 2026, a Yemeni soldier maintains watch in front of the commercial ship "Al-Nuba," which is docked for maintenance close to Yemen's vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. |
The Houthis have demonstrated their ability to do so. They blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for what they claimed were ships connected to the US or Israel during Israel's horrific war on Gaza.
Insurance companies declined to offer lowering traffic due to repeated attacks on ships. The Houthis and the United States reached a ceasefire agreement in May 2025, and the Yemeni group has since reopened the Bab al-Mandeb.
The ease with which the Houthis may replicate the disruption during the conflict on Gaza has been demonstrated in recent days.
The Houthis have been firing missiles and drones at Israel since late March, indicating their effective involvement into the conflict—for the time being, against Israel rather than the United States.
However, former US ambassador Nabeel Khoury told Al Jazeera that the Houthis' missile attacks against Israel amounted to "token engagement, not complete participation."
Because of all the discussion of possible escalation, they have fired a few missiles as a warning. US forces are en route to the area. The former deputy chief of mission in Yemen told Al Jazeera, "There has been speculation that if there is no deal, there would be a full-scale strike on Iran as has not been witnessed thus far."
The obstruction of the Bab al-Mandeb would be the Houthis' weapon if they really decided to join the conflict.
"All they have to do is fire at a few passing ships, and that would result in the arrest of all commercial shipping across the Red Sea," he stated. "That would be a red line, and you would see assaults [from Israel and the United States] against Yemen very rapidly."
What would happen to the world if the Bab al-Mandeb was closed?
A "horror situation" would result from blocking the Red Sea Strait, according to Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East expert and head of Girton College at Cambridge University, who spoke to Al Jazeera.
"Because trade toward Europe will be severely disrupted, if not completely destroyed, if limitations are placed on the Strait of Hormuz at the same time that restrictions are increasing in the Bab al-Mandeb." Depending on what transpires next, this is really a knife edge, she said Al Jazeera.
Although this was a "good spot" for the Houthis, Kendall noted that the Yemeni organization might not wish to "provoke a Saudi or indeed a broader response."
